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Post by Warpig on Mar 17, 2023 9:30:49 GMT -5
How's the war going?
..not good for Ukraine, apparently.
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Post by jdv on Mar 17, 2023 13:27:15 GMT -5
It was also going to end up with a Russian victory.
Historically the Russians have always been poor on offense. It was only after years of ass-whipping and the torture of Stalingrad that they were able to mount an effective offense against Nazi Germany. And even then they stalled, needed the battle of Kursk (a highly defensive battle by the Russians who relied on the over-aggressiveness of German forces) before they were really able to roll against the Krauts. And that only happened after the sacking of countless political generals (who had replaced the real generals in Stalin's military purges of the '30's). More importantly, without effective air support, armor, or a great deal of artillery, Ukraine has no real ability to fight a long war. Drones and missiles will never stop a determined foe willing to send in infantry & tanks. Now that is spring, and now that Putin seems willing to commit his tanks, the inevitable is happening. While the Russians utterly failed at their attempt at a Blitz last spring, their old traditional way of simply wearing an opponent down through sheer weight of numbers + tanks is working just fine. When the ground firms up this summer and the Russian tanks can roam freely through the country-side, the end will have arrived. The only thing that can stop the spring offensive now is US fighter planes flown by US fighter pilots (no chance Ukrainian pilots can be trained in large enough numbers to swing the difference, even if large numbers of planes are handed over). And that's something that would, in theory, need an act of Congress as it would then be open war between the 2 countries, and not merely the proxy one that's been faught so far. Of course, this country long ago gave up any pretense of governing by the rules, so it's really up to Joe Biden. While it's one thing to sacrifice drones and foreigners in his on-going attempt to continue to hide his graft in the Ukraine, it's another thing to start having US boys die in numbers, not to mention getting us just that much closer to WWIII. Support for endless war is starting to dwindle. This country has already spent a lot of money it doesn't have supporting the Ukrainians (a place the 99% of Americans still couldn't locate on a map), all while things go south here. Even people nominally supportive of the war are starting to wonder when massive increases in violent crime & inflation, rail disasters, and a wide-open southern border will be dealt with. The inevitability of a Russian win is only now dawning on DC politicians; something that they seemingly never really contemplated. The only real thing to be determined is how much Putin will settle for - does he now want the whole country, or merely the original objectives? Either way, it won't be NATO/US that determines what happens... unless Biden is willing to put US boots on the ground and in the air. Such a move, of course, would be extremely reckless and would further erode support for the war - simply put, Biden has so little credibility it's extremely difficult to believe he could rally a majority of this country to support a Vietnam-like war in Europe. Yet at this point, that's what it will take. The generals have known this for some time now. Soon, the world will too. |
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Post by jdv on Mar 20, 2023 14:29:50 GMT -5
The newest Forever War looks to keep on rolling as Sunday, Putin met with China's President Xi Jinping, ending with the 2 new besties promising to support one another - including and up the "reunification" of Taiwan with China. The US's response was an odd one as Joe Biden's National Security Council adviser John Kirby promised to not accept any calls for a cease-fire in Ukraine, claiming it would only help Russia. It odd thing to say because a) the cease-fire would help the beleaguered Ukrainians, who are surrounded in several spots, far more and b) Russia isn't calling for a cease-fire. They didn't need it before China pledged support, and obviously need it even less now.
Such support means that sanctions - which only hurt the poor in Russia - will have even less strategic effect. It means in theory that China would not invade Russia, not that there was ever a real chance of that happening.
Wars are ended starting with cease-fires, and the US simply dictated that won't be happening. It also directly points to China doing what everyone expected them to do the second Joe Biden was sworn in as President - invade Taiwan. What it immediately means of course is more dead Ukrainians and more infrastructure shattered in a war that they can not win. It's also an admission that it's not the Ukrainians calling the shots, but rather Joe Biden.
The Ukrainians have no ability to pursue the war without NATO and the US, entities that now have to deal with a publicly united China & Russia. The benefit of a war in Ukraine to US national security was always dubious, and now some 14 months later, it's far more so.
Drained military resources, billions in unbacked/unfunded money flowing despite our record high inflation, and now the joining of China & Russia has clearly - obviously - made the US less secure, not more so.
All without any declaration of war.
With the remarks Sunday, it's clear that the US has no plan for peace; that the current administration will not accept what is now an undeniable reality, that Russia will control at least part of Ukraine and will see the rest of it pounded into useless dust in the regions they don't. Such an outcome hardly benefits the US, and certainly doesn't help the people of Ukraine... not that they were really a consideration. How any of that helps this country is something no one seems to be asking.
Indeed, it is hard to see how Russia "losing" the war helps either. Even if everything Biden demands happens, the money is already spent, the dead already gone, Ukraine is still in ruins, and the joining of China & Russia is now an established fact - none of that helps this country in the slightest.
Stop me if you've seen this one before.... |
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Post by Warpig on Mar 21, 2023 4:55:18 GMT -5
“I remember saying once to Arthur Koestler, ‘History stopped in 1936’, at which he nodded in immediate understanding. We were both thinking of totalitarianism in general, but more particularly of the Spanish civil war. Early in life I have noticed that no event is ever correctly reported in a newspaper, but in Spain, for the first time, I saw newspaper reports which did not bear any relation to the facts, not even the relationship which is implied in an ordinary lie. I saw great battles reported where there had been no fighting, and complete silence where hundreds of men had been killed. I saw troops who had fought bravely denounced as cowards and traitors, and others who had never seen a shot fired hailed as the heroes of imaginary victories; and I saw newspapers in London retailing these lies and eager intellectuals building emotional superstructures over events that had never happened. I saw, in fact, history being written not in terms of what happened but of what ought to have happened according to various ‘party lines’.”
— George Orwell
from “Looking back on the Spanish War”
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Post by jdv on Mar 21, 2023 12:11:18 GMT -5
While it's entirely possible that Joe Biden is the most corrupt president in this county's history, the real story is the utter failure of the 'free' press to say a word about it. Never before in this country's history has there been so much evidence of mal/misfeasance done by a powerful person with so much disinterest in reporting it. Biden's graft is so astounding that it makes other previous grifters like Bill & Hillary Clinton look like positively quaint, yet not a single peep about any of it over the past 3 years in a collective act of self-censorship so large & complete as to boggle the mind. Add to that complete failure to report an aspect of covid correctly, the ridiculous narrative of "mostly peaceful" protests as cities burned to the ground, or the claim that we've had fair elections, and the "news" in this country is as divorced from reality as when Germans were told in 1942 by their news agency that their army had conquered Stalingrad. Hard to say what's worse - the non-reporting of blockbuster stories, or running stories that had literally no basis in reality. News broadcasts still report on a daily basis with a straight face that the vaccine is "safe & effective" despite a veritable mountain of evidence that the opposite is true. After all, history is replete with corrupt greedy politicians who put themselves ahead of their countrymen; filled with evil politicians willing to murder to get into power. And plenty of them are in power at this very moment. But for a country who's very founding is based on a free press, the ability to speak your mind, the ability to associate with whomever you want to without fear of government retribution, never before have we seen such widespread corruption of those ideals by the press. Never before have we seen such widely impressed censorship. So given that, it should be no surprise that the mainstream press continues to claim that Ukraine is winning the war - because that's what they've been told what to do. And they'll continue to do so all the way up to the moment when they sadly report a "sudden & unexpected" capitulation by Ukraine, completely aghast as to how they could have lost.
And just like the selective forgetfulness of the debacle in Afghanistan which saw America abandon billions in military arms to the very terrorists we were told for 20 years were the very worst, news of the defeat will be conveniently forgotten about just as fast as is humanly possible. It's little wonder that the only group of people held with less trust than politicians in this country are reporters and propaganda outlets they work for. Meanwhile, China & Russian today issued a press release claiming that the two countries have "never been closer" and that they look forward to "forging a new world order."
I don't think it's a giant leap of logic to suggest that Joe Biden - whose family has taken millions of dollars from both countries starting with his time as Vice President - is hardly the man to defeat such a pair.
But don't worry scro - the press will still be shocked when the war in Ukraine turns south; will still be willing to blame anyone but those who are responsible.
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell, 'Animal Farm'
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Post by jdv on Mar 21, 2023 16:46:19 GMT -5
So it's been announced that the US is sending "old" tanks to the Ukraine, with delivery in "8-10" months, as well as Patriot missile systems. The US will send 31 Abrams tanks, but the older A1-M1 version, which essentially means older computer firing/targeting systems. The Germans had previously announced that they are sending in 14 Leopard 2 A6 tanks. The $400 million package announced Wednesday also includes eight M88 recovery vehicles — tank-like tracked vehicles that can tow the Abrams if it gets stuck. Of course all these plans are kaput if the Ukrainians fold first. If they don't, it also means that US troops will be sent in, as there's zero chance that the Ukrainians will actually be able to maintain the tanks - which is why they weren't sent in the first place. Naturally Russia views Germany and the US sending tanks as a bad idea, but they can hardly cry too much about the plan. What it might do is simply speed up the time table for a large offensive. Certainly the US tanks won't be there for the expected Russian offensive this spring, or the summer or fall for that matter. While it would be interesting to see what would happen in a modern tank battle, with Ukrainian drivers (well, presumably they'd be Ukrainian), it really wouldn't tell us much. But none of that will happen - now that China's firmly involved, I'm guessing Joe finds his way around to peace talks before the summer is out. You know, because reasons. www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-to-send-patriot-missile-systems-and-tanks-to-ukraine-faster-than-originally-planned/ar-AA18UdHXapnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-military-technology-germany-7b63726a3935da3f03424e98e52a85b2 |
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Post by jdv on Mar 22, 2023 10:41:05 GMT -5
But before Joe throws in the towel while yelling about his victory as he shuffles off stage, first the escalation: "The EU is sending one million artillery shells to Ukraine at the eye-watering price of two billion Euros, meanwhile the United Kingdom has confirmed it would be sending depleted uranium anti-tank rounds along with the main battle tanks it is donating to the country." ----------------------- The EU must be rolling in money. It should be noted that Ukraine is not a member of the EU or NATO, BUT they do have a lot of sweet track suits, so I can see spending the money. Regardless, if uranium tipped warheads are used it would all but guarantee that the zones with heavy fighting would be all but uninhabitable for generations to come. When uranium tipped ammo explodes, it spreads everywhere into thousands of fragments thus making it all but impossible to clean up the deadly radioactive material when the fighting's done. If you doubt that, just goggle "birth defects Iraq uranium tipped shells". Because I like you, I won't post any pics, but let this snippet from an article on what happens when you use monstrously unethical weaponry on the battlefield: "In Iraq, birth defects are a visible embodiment of the enduring toxic legacy of war for future generations and the environment. The Falluja Hospital’s birth defects Facebook page, where medical staff catalogue cases, reveals the striking diversity and quantity of congenital anomalies. Babies in Falluja are born with hydrocephaly, cleft palates, tumors, elongated heads, overgrown limbs, short limbs and malformed ears, noses and spines." --------------------------- The population centers of Ukraine are far more densely packed, thus present a vastly increased likelihood of genetic damage to countless people.
And not to put too fine a point on it, no one in Iraq invited the US/NATO to fire such ammo in their country; here, Zelensky seems to have asked for it.
Which shows either how desperate the situation is and/or how reckless he is with the long term health of his people.
The shells will take months to deliver and/or to create in factories, which again would seem to favor the Russians. This then looks to be more for show than reality as Russia even now prepares for their spring/summer offensive. But it's hard to ignore the increase in the already quite heated rhetoric. By promising to delivery uranium tipped shells, the EU/US/NATO has upped the game - this only a day after promising tanks and Patriot missiles. For his part, old Vlad was not happy:
"If all this happens, Russian will have to respond accordingly, I’m talking about the fact the west is already beginning to use weapons with a nuclear component."---------------------------- Well not exactly, but is certainly a further escalation. It is also a tacit acknowledgement by the US/EU that Ukraine is losing the war, or at the very least, that they will lose the war without such ramping up of arms. The 64,000 megaton question is whether or not Vlad would use a tactical nuke, knowing that China will apparently approve. Of course it may not come to that if the Russians are successful this summer, but as the game is upped, the use if nukes becomes ever more possible. So, yeah. merip.org/2020/09/birth-defects-and-the-toxic-legacy-of-war-in-iraq/www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/03/22/russia-will-respond-accordingly-threatens-putin-after-uk-announces-depleted-uranium-rounds-for-ukraine/ |
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Post by Warpig on Mar 22, 2023 16:15:16 GMT -5
Rejoice, for the Kingdom of God is at hand.
Repent and be saved!
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Post by jdv on Mar 22, 2023 17:14:48 GMT -5
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Post by jdv on Mar 22, 2023 18:10:09 GMT -5
Is the end already arriving? "Artyomovsk (called Bakhmut in Ukraine) has been fully sealed off by Russian forces and all the approaches to the city are under artillery control, Yan Gagin, military-political expert and adviser to the acting head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), said on Wednesday. “The city is in operational encirclement, which means that all the approaches and all the transportation arteries leading to it are under the control of our artillery. In principle, it can be said that the city has been actually sealed off,” he said in a live broadcast on the Rossiya-1 television channel.’ TASS: ‘Currently, Russian forces control about 70% of the Artyomovsk area. The Ukrainian garrison positioned in the city numbers about 10,000-strong personnel. Acting [Donetsk] Head Denis Pushilin has repeatedly said that there is no evidence of the Ukrainian army’s plans to leave Artyomovsk. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky earlier said that Ukrainian troops would not surrender Artyomovsk and would fight for it as long as they could. It is, therefore, unlikely that Kiev would authorize its forces to surrender, even though they are now cut off from reinforcements and re-supply." ----------------------------- If true - and there should be a grain of salt for whichever propaganda outlet is saying it - then not only is a major city gone over to the Russians, its sounds like 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are gone too. The likelihood of this being reported tonight on the news - or even next week - is zero, but at some point it will become obvious even to the crack reporters doing their level best to ignore reality that Russia is winning. Indeed, there was never any way they could lose this war, at least with Ukraine's current level of military capacity. Thus, unless the UK/Germany/US is willing to put their own boots on the ground, the war's outcome is pre-ordained. The addition of tanks, missile systems, and uranium shells won't happen for months and won't be worth much if there are no Ukrainian soldiers left to use them. But there's a whole lot of slogging and even more body bags & mass graves before victory is declared by both sides. You know that, or the draft notices will be sent out be Halloween along with 'duck & cover' pamphlets. www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/bakhmut-falls-artyomovsk-rises-strategic-and-symbolic-city-in-eastern-ukraine-fully-encircled-by-russian-forces-kiev-leaves-10k-soldiers-trapped-in-the-cauldron/ |
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Post by Warpig on Mar 23, 2023 13:44:45 GMT -5
Oh, and now China and Russia are best buddies! Oh, and look, Saudi Arabia and Iran have buried the hatchet thanks to China! Oh look, Russia is going to buy oil in Yuans! Oh, hey how are we doing here? Oh....
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Post by jdv on Mar 23, 2023 18:10:30 GMT -5
Yeah, but they'll really turn it around during midterms!
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Post by Warpig on Mar 23, 2023 18:56:50 GMT -5
Everybody thought Stork had BRAIN DAMAGE!
I myself was SO obnoxious, the seniors used to beat me up twice a week.
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Post by jdv on Mar 24, 2023 11:35:08 GMT -5
So about that escalation we've been talking about.... "Russia Threatens to Nuke… Everyone over International Criminal Court Arrest Warrant for Putin The announcement of the International Criminal Court (ICC) this week that they had issued an arrest warrant for President Vladimir Putin has clearly riled Russia... Former Russian president turned National Security Council warmonger Dmitry Medvedev has moved on to threatening to bomb any country that would fulfil its treaty obligations to serve the warrant." --------------------------- Generally speaking war commissions are formed after winning the war, not before. And now we know why - it tends to solidify an enemy's unwillingness to bargain when they're being threatened with death and/or life in prison. Funny that. And as if to confirm that theory, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told a reporter 2 days ago that Western nations should make preparations for the long-haul, describing the battle as a “war of attrition”. He went on: “President Putin doesn’t plan for peace, he’s planning for more war,” he continued, alleging that Moscow is seeking to expand its military industrial base by “reaching out to authoritarian regimes like Iran or North Korea, and others to try to get more weapons”. ------------------- In other words, the bad guys - well, worse guys - are now forming alliances to boot. So not great. There's been zero plan from peace from NATO, expect for simply having Russia leave - something's that even more impossible with war crimes hanging over Putin's head if he loses. All this talk of a long war for a war that's already gone 13+ months is a bit odd. All of WWII was fought in under 5 years. WWI in 4 years. Gulf War I in 5 months. So yeah. www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/03/24/russia-threatens-to-nuke-everyone-over-international-criminal-court-arrest-warrant-for-putin/www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/22/jens-stoltenberg-nato-chief-west-support-ukraine-for-long-war |
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Post by Warpig on Mar 24, 2023 13:52:39 GMT -5
Upcoming Washington Post Op-Ed: "Nuclear Annihilation; it's not what you think!"
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Post by Warpig on Mar 24, 2023 13:53:12 GMT -5
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Post by jdv on Mar 24, 2023 14:02:03 GMT -5
Flounder.
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Post by Warpig on Mar 24, 2023 15:04:37 GMT -5
Nope, it's just Animal House Friday, back when everyone was cool.
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Post by jdv on Mar 24, 2023 15:30:42 GMT -5
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Post by jdv on Mar 25, 2023 14:10:11 GMT -5
Ruh roh - the UK accuses Ukraine of war crimes too: "The Russian and Ukrainian armed forces have been accused of torturing and executing prisoners of war over the past year by the United Nations, which said that such actions could amount to war crimes. A report from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) claimed that both Russia and Ukraine have engaged in the summary execution of prisoners of war, which contravenes numerous international human rights laws and treaties on war." -------------------------- Golly gee wilikers - it's almost like neither side is the good guy!
Why, it's like this whole war hasn't been a territorial dispute between ancient European rivals with blood feuds going back centuries right from the start; neither worthy of US or UN support.... Almost. www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/03/25/un-accuses-both-russians-and-ukrainians-of-summary-executions-of-prisoners-of-war/ |
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Post by jdv on Mar 25, 2023 18:16:42 GMT -5
So about that escalation we've been talking about....
And it's getting warrrrrmer:
"(AFP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin said Saturday he would deploy tactical nuclear weapons in neighbour and ally Belarus.
Putin has repeatedly issued thinly veiled threats he could use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, reviving Cold War-era fears.
He also said he would deploy depleted uranium ammunition if Kyiv received such munitions from the West following a British suggestion that it could supply Ukraine.
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg slammed Russia for suspending the nuclear weapons limitation treaty with the US, saying it marked the end of Europe’s post-Cold War arms control architecture." -------------------------------
Sure sure we're another step closer to nuclear Armageddon, but have you seen the stock price for Raytheon and Lockheed? Sometimes you gotta break a few eggs to get those dividends up!
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Post by Warpig on Mar 26, 2023 20:18:50 GMT -5
Well I for one can't wait to become a cannibal in the post apocalyptic hellscape that will be our nuclear destroyed country, as our civilization and its institutions are reduced to ash.
Life goals!
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Post by jdv on Mar 28, 2023 12:35:59 GMT -5
We don't need another hero... Thunderdome!
If Vlad does put nukes in Belarus, it'll be the first time Russia has moved nukes outside its border since the mid-1990's.
That's nearly 40 years for those of you from Ann Arbor.
But don't worry scro, the now very real threat of atom bombs being dropped in Europe is the right thing to do.
Joe feels like he owed it to them.
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Post by Warpig on Mar 28, 2023 13:09:00 GMT -5
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Post by jdv on Mar 28, 2023 13:54:04 GMT -5
Kick-ass.
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Post by jdv on Mar 29, 2023 12:11:20 GMT -5
And new tanks from the UK and Germany have been delivered to Ukraine, albeit in small numbers: "...the United Kingdom said it would be sending 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine, just three appear in the video, suggesting further deliveries will follow. German Leopard 2 tanks have also rolled into Ukraine this week, another well regarded piece of armour which like the British Challenger is a product of the late Cold War and specifically designed to fight Russian tanks in Europe. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz confirmed 18 German tanks had arrived in Ukraine on Monday, having been handed over at the border, Die Welt reported." ----------------------------
So, just 21 tanks in total. A nice advantage in a small town or part of a larger city, but over a 1,000 mile front basically a nullity. Perhaps more interesting is this little nugget from the article: "The Ukrainians also noted the arrival of Stryker AFV and Cougar MRAP vehicles from the United States, and Marder IFVs from Germany. The tracked Marders are having a renaissance of sorts at the moment, alongside 40 vehicles going to Ukraine, the German military is also re-activating other 1970s-era Marders from storage for their own use, as the modern Puma armoured vehicles meant to replace them have proven prone to breaking down." ----------------------
21 tanks and Cold War era surplus isn't a recipe for a smashing victory
Along with the delay in sending in Abrams tanks and Patriot missile systems for a year means that this "escalation" would seem to be of the paper tiger variety, one done mostly for the benefit of the press.
All of which tends to support the idea that the US/UK knows that Russia will win, and sooner than later, thus the relatively small show of support in terms of modern MBTs.
And yet, according to a report today from the UK, the Russians have lost nearly a quarter million men to casualties, including a whopping 171,000+ dead.
That certainly supports the notion that there isn't wide-spread desire for the war in Russia. It also supports my theory that the Russians are dog-shit on the offensive. Yet even a remotely large, effective, push by the Russians would at the very least solidify their gains by the end of the summer.
It's a bit like a blind man fighting a cripple at this point - one side completely inept, while the other is under-armed and under-manned.
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Post by jdv on Apr 5, 2023 14:14:17 GMT -5
Things keep heating up: "Nuclear-Capable Missiles Now Deployed to Europe in Belarus, Claims Russia Shorter range but operationally flexible, “Iskander-M tactical missile systems” have been deployed to Belarus, and Belarussian crews have travelled to Russia to receive training in their operation, Moscow has said. The missile can be equipped with several different warheads using conventional explosives for different purposes, or it can carry a small nuclear warhead." ------------------------------- Again, this is a bit of brinkmanship meant for the public only, as Putin has plenty of nukes that could be launched from deep inside Russia to decimate Ukraine. Still, there can be little doubt that things keep ratcheting up in a game of chicken where one side is lead by a deeply corrupt dementia patient, and the other a power hungry tyrant. Which means its likely that we'll all have to take a bite out of a very large (and possibly radioactive) shit sandwich sooner than later. www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/04/05/nuclear-capable-missiles-now-deployed-to-europe-in-belarus-claims-russia/ |
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Post by jdv on Apr 10, 2023 18:55:53 GMT -5
If you're wondering what happened to the war in the Ukraine, you're not alone. It's been weeks since there's been any real reporting on the TV side of the news, and that's likely because of two things - 1, it's not going so well there and 2, that might be because of massive intel leak from the Pentagon detailing strength/weaknesses of the Ukrainians (amongst other follies like the fact that the US is/was spying on its "allies" at least as much as it spying on the "enemies"). Those "leaks" were on-line as recently as 6 weeks ago, and were up for months. Naturally no one has been fired or charged with a crime for this little oppsie. This after the Pentagon last week admitted that the Chinese spy balloon did indeed target US military bases and did live-stream that spying back to China. But after doing a lot of googling, I was able to find a story indicating that the Russians seem just about ready for their summer offensive: "Russia's forces kept up a barrage of attacks along the front concentrated in two Ukrainian cities in the eastern region of Donetsk, Ukraine's military reported, as Kyiv said it repelled more than 40 enemy strikes over the past 24 hours. Russia has destroyed a depot containing 70,000 tonnes of fuel near the southeastern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, the Russian defense ministry said on Sunday." ------------------------- The end should come sooner than later at this point but either way the war in Ukraine will soon be a side show as China readies itself to invade Taiwan, perhaps as soon as next week.
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Post by Warpig on Apr 11, 2023 14:27:54 GMT -5
I'm starting to get the feeling, it's JUST a feeling, that the Pentagon might not be entirely on the 'up and up', if you get my meaning.
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Post by jdv on Apr 11, 2023 15:41:32 GMT -5
Apparently, among other things, the Pentagon leaks revealed that the US has little faith in an anticipated Ukrainian offensive this spring/early summer. Little wonder, as the Russians are far better on counter-offensive than on the straight-up attack, and the Russians apparently want to draw the Ukrainians out of Kyiv to bring their superior fire-power to bare. The Russians already have miles of trenches already in place, so they don't need to do much to prepare, simply wait. The Russians used such a tactic against Germany in the biggest tank battle in human history, the battle of Kursk. There, the Russians actually half-buried their tanks facing their own lines, counting on German aggressiveness to over-run Russian positions. When they did, the Russians simply shot the unsuspecting Germans in the back. Thus I'm sure it would greatly please the Russians for the Ukrainians to do the same. But maybe for once, the Pentagon will be right about something: "Ukraine's challenges in massing troops, ammunition and equipment could cause its military to fall "well short" of Kyiv's original goals for an anticipated counteroffensive aimed at retaking Russian-occupied areas this spring, according to U.S. intelligence assessments contained in a growing leak of classified documents revealing Washington's misgivings about the state of the war. The bleak assessment from early February warns of significant "force generation and sustainment shortfalls," and the likelihood that such an operation will result in only "modest territorial gains." It's a marked departure from the Biden administration's public statements about the vitality of Ukraine's military and is likely to embolden critics who feel the United States and NATO should do more to push for a negotiated settlement to the conflict." ---------------------------------------------------------
I know this will come as a shock given the President's propensity for truth telling at every opportunity, but I think he's been exaggerating the chance of success in the Ukraine.
Shocking, I know.
And while the Pentagon leaks were marked "Top Secret," there's nothing secret about what's going on - this is history 101 kind of stuff. The Russians are far better at counter-attack and are already dug in, the Ukrainians are already bled dry, and they're completely reliant on the west for weapons and other support. It's also pretty clear that no one is sending state-of-the-art tanks to Ukraine, at least not in any significant numbers, nor are advanced missile systems or jets coming in by the hundreds.
In a practical sense, all Putin has to do is simply stay put and he wins - which is perhaps exactly what his plan is now.
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