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Post by jdv on Apr 13, 2023 12:00:19 GMT -5
And while the Pentagon leaks were marked "Top Secret," there's nothing secret about what's going on - this is history 101 kind of stuff. The Russians are far better at counter-attack and are already dug in, the Ukrainians are already bled dry, and they're completely reliant on the west for weapons and other support.
Which is why it's looking more and more like the US will put boots on the ground... In fact, they already have:
"U.S. Special Forces in Ukraine Are Working on ‘Accountability of the Material Going in and Out of Ukraine’ – Not Fighting
NSC spokesman John Kirby told Fox News on Wednesday that the U.S. special forces are in Ukraine at the U.S. embassy, but they are not fighting in the Russia-Ukraine war.
This comes after the BBC reported that UK and US special forces are in Ukraine according to one of dozens of leaked Defense Department classified documents." ---------------------------------
So... special forces are there for "accounting" purposes? Gee, that sounds... weird.
Making it doubly so, the current administration has fought every attempt for a real accounting of all the money and resources going to Ukraine. As of right now, there is, essentially, zero over-sight on where it's all going.
Oddly enough, special forces are trained not to account for materials that aren't being accounted for, but rather to smash stuff and break things.
So if this feels exactly like the start of US involvement in the Vietnam war to you, congratulations - you get a cookie.
Now the number of SF troops from the US/UK/France/Latvia is tiny according to the leaks - less than 100 - but it does indicate the slow, inexorable, trend towards "mission creep" at best, and outright direct war at worst.
Of course the leaks could be wrong - they're already a month out of date in any event - and US troops have been in Ukraine for some time now as "advisors," but one can't help but feel that the US is once again being drawn further into a war in a country that 99% of Americans still could not locate on a map.
Special force troops alone can not, will not, sway the battle. At the rate of attrition happening right now (which will grow exponentially when either side finally begins their summer offensive) Ukraine will need bodies numbering tens of thousands to stay in the war.
Such numbers simply do not exist, at least not yet.
cnsnews.com/article/washington/melanie-arter/nsc-spokesman-us-special-forces-ukraine-are-working-accountability
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Post by jdv on Apr 13, 2023 12:23:33 GMT -5
Making it doubly so, the current administration has fought every attempt for a real accounting of all the money and resources going to Ukraine. As of right now, there is, essentially, zero over-sight on where it's all going.
Oddly enough, special forces are trained not to account for materials that aren't being accounted for, but rather to smash stuff and break things.
Well, speaking of that....
"Seymour Hersh Reports that Ukrainian Leader Zelensky Embezzled $400 Million from US Payments Allocated for Fuel
In his blog, Hersh writes – The Ukraine government, headed by Volodymyr Zelensky, has been using American taxpayers’ funds to pay dearly for the vitally needed diesel fuel that is keeping the Ukrainian army on the move in its war with Russia.
It is unknown how much the Zalensky government is paying per gallon for the fuel, but the Pentagon was paying as much as $400 per gallon to transport gasoline from a port in Pakistan, via truck or parachute, into Afghanistan during the decades-long American war there.
The issue of corruption was directly raised with Zelensky in a meeting last January in Kyiv with CIA Director William Burns. His message to the Ukrainian president, I was told by an intelligence official with direct knowledge of the meeting, was out of a 1950s mob movie.
The senior generals and government officials in Kyiv were angry at what they saw as Zelensky’s greed, so Burns told the Ukrainian president because “he was taking a larger share of the skim money than was going to the generals.”
“The ten he got rid of were brazenly bragging about the money they had—driving around Kyiv in their new Mercedes,” the intelligence official told me." --------------------------------
Hersch, it should be noted, is the same liberal reporter who broke the news that the US bombed the Nordstream pipeline.
I don't want to shock you gentle readers, but it turns out Zelensky's not exactly Churchill after all.
The motives for our involvement in this war are starting to make what we did in Vietnam look clean and righteous.
eurasiantimes.com/ukraine-war-zelensky-embezzled-400-million-allocated-by-the-us-for-purchasing-fuel-seymour-hersh/
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Post by jdv on Apr 21, 2023 11:42:20 GMT -5
A few updates in our latest and not so greatest forever war.... Joe Biden approved another $320 Million plus more Military for Ukraine this week. The latest equipment includes ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, precision aerial bombs, TOW guided missile systems, AT-4 anti-armor weapons systems, anti-tank mines and demolition munitions, UPI reports.
The announcement came on the same day Ukraine´s defense minister said his country has just received U.S-made Patriot surface-to-air guided missile systems it has long craved.
It will all be pulled from Pentagon stocks to expedite delivery to the front lines.----------------------------------------------
This is the biggest indication yet that the war has turned decidedly south for Ukraine as these weapons were not scheduled to go to the Ukraine until much later this year.
And this new announcement shows just how expensive proxy wars are:
"The latest assistance package is the 36th time the Presidential Drawdown Authority has been used to supply Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
The assistance package comes on the heels of a $2.6 billion military aid package announced by the White House earlier this month. --------------------------------------------------
I'm old enough to remember when Congress had to OK money for wars. I guess that, like many other things from our past, is long gone too.
Meanwhile, it appears that the rest of the world is willing to sell arms to whoever has the loot as Egypt - a long time ally - was caught trying to sell Russia 40,000 rockets.
Egypt should be grateful to the US - Since 1978 it has received a total of $80 billion dollars — $50 billion in economic aid, and $30 billion in military aid.
In other words, they'd be selling the rockets we gave them to Russia. Which ain't a great look. --------------------------------------------
Which is also an indication about how bad it's going for Russia. A new report suggests that Russia has suffered a staggering 250,000 casualties since starting the war some 14 months ago, with 50,000-60,000 soldiers KIA/MIA.
By way of comparison, the Great Bear lost 16,000 in Chechnya in the 1990s and 25,000 in Afghanistan in the ‘80s.
And those wars lasted some 10 years each.
Compile that with low birth-rates (Russia, for the first time in a 1/2 century, has begun restricting abortions), and this has become a vastly costly war for Putin. Couple that with suicide via vodka and Russia no longer has quite as much meat for the grinder as they did back in the day.
Which is why the reports about fighting age Russian men leaving their homeland in droves has credence. It's mighty hard to believe that there's really much enthusiasm for a war that, even if won, will bring very little in terms of lucre or prestige. That time passed once the war went past the 30 day mark.
All of which makes you wonder about the trillions spent on keeping the US military in Europe for the past 80 years. If Russia can no longer even defeat Ukraine in a ground war, what chance have they of defeating Germany or France?
But that will be an issue once the blood machine has finally been turned off in Ukraine, where both sides will claim victory while thousands rot in fresh graves.
It's a gigantic war of chicken where neither side can back out, but one eventually must lose.
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Post by Warpig on Apr 21, 2023 13:01:18 GMT -5
Lord have mercy.
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Post by jdv on Apr 21, 2023 14:00:53 GMT -5
In a sense, the end result in the region will be exactly that of before the war - Russia the clumsy giant with a sub-par military, and the Ukraine a deeply corrupt, but energy rich, country barely above 3rd world status.
Yet this war has, potentially, changed things for decades to come in that China and Russia are now much closer than before the start of the war. Oil is now being sold throughout the using the Chinese yuan instead of the US dollar, and incredibly damaging strategic development to America.
Evil countries/dictators rarely get on well for very long, but for right now the US is now more insecure than at the start, and likely the finish.
Not a great result considering the money/time/effort spent by this country.
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Post by jdv on May 3, 2023 11:40:05 GMT -5
This might spice things up... and by "spice," I mean atom bombs: "Russian News: Ukraine Attempted to Hit Kremlin with Drones Overnight in Putin Assassination Attempt Russia’s TASS reported: “Tonight, the Kyiv regime made an attempt to strike with unmanned aerial vehicles on the Kremlin residence of the President of the Russian Federation,” the Kremlin stated. According to the press service of the head of state, “two unmanned aerial vehicles were aimed at the Kremlin.” “As a result of timely actions taken by the military and special services with the use of radar warfare systems, the devices were put out of action,” the Kremlin stressed. Russian President Vladimir Putin was not injured and continues to work as usual, the press service said." ----------------------------- Ukraine has denied it was an assassination attempt, which absolutely no one believes. Clumsy attempts aside, the Ukraine is expected to begin it's spring offensive soon. Of course if it waits much longer it'll be a summer offensive.... ...Or maybe fall offensive. It's pretty clear that it isn't just 2 month old leaked documents that's preventing an assault at this point (and boy howdy did that leak drop out of the news quickly); the Ukraine seems to have accepted my assertion that the Russians want them to attack, if for no other reason to draw them out. Which means stalemate. Either way, a poorly-executed assassination attempt (what else could it have been?) isn't a sign that everything's peachy-keen and it of course risks Putin getting even more punchy. Add to that the republicans signing off for even more money going to Ukraine and the next few weeks will be interesting. www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/05/russian-news-ukraine-attempted-to-hit-kremlin-with-drones-overnight-in-putin-assassination-attempt/
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Post by Warpig on May 3, 2023 13:05:42 GMT -5
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Post by jdv on May 9, 2023 12:08:52 GMT -5
SO yesterday there was an indication of just how badly the war has been going for the Russians as their annual celebration parade of the date of crushing Nazi Germany featured.... One tank. A T-34 from WWII: "The parade in Moscow didn't have any modern tanks, infantry fighting vehicles or aviation. It was one of the smallest in Russian history, taking less than 10 minutes. There was one T-34 tank that took part in WWII. No Iskanders, Armata tanks, aviation." -------------------------
What's really crazy is that there were ten T-34's in the parade 2 years ago, meaning that perhaps Russia is so desperate that it has put nine 80 year old museum tanks into combat service.
I've seen small town 4th of July parades that had more firepower than what Russia displayed yesterday.
On the one hand, the presumption is that Ukraine will attempt a late spring/early summer offensive any minute now, so pulling tanks off of the front line would be silly. It wasn't too far out an idea that Ukraine would attack during the parade....
...On the other, not even having 10 spare modern tanks for the parade is an indication that literally ALL combat ready tanks are in service. And every other tank too. Clearly the Russians are both expecting an attack soon, and have thrown everything in to stop it.
Meanwhile in more bad new for Russia (and American tax payers), Joe Biden today announced another $1.2 billion in military aid to Ukraine, raising the official number to $37 billion. Of course much of that is siphoned away before it actually gets spent on bullets, but there can be little doubt that Russia can not outspend the west.
Thus Russia may simply not be able to wait it out. But if the parade is an indication, neither can they afford to go on offense again either.
If this is all they could spare....
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Post by jdv on May 17, 2023 12:25:37 GMT -5
On Monday the Russians did a bit of flexing with the destruction of an ammo depot with a new hyper-sonic missile. Among the damage was a destroyed and/or damaged US Patriot missile battery costing over a billion dollars. Depending on who you believe, the battery was either completely destroyed or "still assessing the damage." Either way, it a) didn't stop the Russian missile and b) is out of action for the time being if it survived at all.
That said, the west is claiming to have shot down several other hypersonic missiles (nick-named "killjoy"), with the Russians denying it. Either way, the war in the air is heating up.
Of far greater interest however was that last Saturday - May 13th - the Russians blew up an Ukrainian ammo dump near Khmelnytskyi purported to have over $550,000,000 worth of ammo, including uranium depleted rounds. The massive, "evil" looking fireball took the form of a mushroom in what we can only hope isn't a precursor to the real deal.
Whether or not depleted uranium shells were at the depot is still being debated, but not the amount of ammo lost. Obviously such a massive loss of munitions hurts Ukraine badly if it wants to conduct a summer offensive - indeed, it probably kills all chance of it happening at all now.
So the war drags on with no chance of it ending as there are no negotiations.
The real question is which side will be the first to commit its tanks/infantry in an offensive. Clearly both sides have become far more reserved when it comes to just pouring in more men - the meat grinder has already taken quite a toll.
It's only $550 mil worth of ammo.... what's the big deal?
www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/politics/patriot-missile-damage-ukraine/index.html
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Post by Warpig on May 17, 2023 13:07:33 GMT -5
Nope, nothing to see here!
Keep paying those taxes!
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Post by jdv on May 17, 2023 14:32:43 GMT -5
Hey, just because nearly $2 billion - that's "billion" with a "B" just went up in smoke doesn't mean that things aren't well in hand! Why, let this general from NATO explain....
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Post by jdv on May 20, 2023 17:40:47 GMT -5
And apparently things aren't so well in hand.... "Russia’s Wagner Chief Claims Victory in Bakhmut, Yet Ukraine Denies Defeat According to the bellicose boss of Russia’s private army Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the city of Bakmut fell to his forces on Saturday after one of the longest and bloodiest battles of the war in Ukraine, with fighting in the area starting over 200 days ago. “Today at noon, Bakhmut was fully captured,” Prigozhin said in a video published on his Telegram channel, as translated by Russian state-media RT. “We’ve taken the whole city – every building – so that nobody could say that we didn’t capture some small part of it,” he declared." ------------------------------ While Ukraine is denying it, at the very least it looks like the Russians now effectively control the city. While the city is relatively small - less than 80,000 population before the war - it is the traditional capital of the region and remained one of the administrative centers of the country. As such, it acts as a hub with roads leading in all directions, perhaps it's most important strategic aspect. On the other hand, the fact that it took the Russians more than 200 days to conquer the city is an indication of just how poor the Russians are on offense in an urban environment. Another sign that things are going poorly for Ukraine is that Joe Biden reversed his position and will now let Ukrainian pilots train on US warplanes, F-16s in particular. In Feb - less than 3 months ago - Biden outright refused this request.
No word on how many F-16s will ultimately be sent to Ukraine, but Russian has already it "presents colossal risks" to do so.
Biden is also sending another $375 million to the Ukraine, again without any real over-sight or congressional approval. Whether or not this is the equivalent to lighting a stack of money on fire remains to be seen, but with the destruction of major ammo dumps and now the loss of a hard fought for city, Ukraine may not be on the ropes, but also doesn't appear any closer to actually repelling the Russians in what is looking more and more like a very long war.
www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/05/20/russias-wagner-chief-claims-victory-in-bakhmut-yet-ukraine-denies-defeat/www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/05/20/what-debt-ceiling-biden-set-to-send-another-375-million-in-weapons-to-ukraine/
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Post by Warpig on May 22, 2023 7:09:03 GMT -5
We have not had a functioning government since 2001.
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Post by Warpig on May 22, 2023 7:32:48 GMT -5
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Post by jdv on May 22, 2023 12:31:13 GMT -5
Perhaps the biggest indication of all that Ukraine will ultimately fold is that it is now summer and no offensive has started, or appears even remotely close to being able to start. Which, if true, means that Ukraine won't start their offensive til late summer, early fall. Essentially, they'd just be trying to counter whatever offensive Russia puts together. But if Ukraine isn't ready for a big push, neither is Russia, who for the most part has simply dug in around bigger Ukrainian towns in the east. At this point one gets the feeling Putin is desperate to save face, as there's no longer any illusions of a "quick" win, and plenty of doubt about winning at all.
All of which means that sans escalation into nukes/chemical/bio, this war could last years. Which is great if - like many senators & congressman - you own stock in companies that make war materials. Not so great if you're Russian or Ukrainian.
Of course, there's still the very real (and ever growing) possibility that the war does escalate into something much much bigger.
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Post by Warpig on May 26, 2023 8:05:56 GMT -5
----------------------------------------------
Confidence is SWELLING!
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Post by jdv on May 26, 2023 11:45:26 GMT -5
Just like General Dynamics profit margin!
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Post by jdv on May 31, 2023 15:28:15 GMT -5
Another day, another $300M Package for Ukraine has been approved by Joe Biden today. The package includes: The capabilities in this package include: • Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems; • AIM-7 missiles for air defense; • Avenger air defense systems; • Stinger anti-aircraft systems; • Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS); • 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds; • 105mm tank ammunition; • Precision aerial munitions; • Zuni aircraft rockets; • Munitions for Unmanned Aerial Systems • AT-4 anti-armor systems; • Over 30 million rounds of small arms ammunition; • Mine clearing equipment and systems ---------------------------------------------- Now whether any of that is true will remain unknown, as there remains no real oversight by Congress to make sure Ukraine military actually receives the aid, or if the money is simply pocketed. Then again, Congress hasn't approved a dime of the $40 billion spent so far, so we're pretty far round the bend in terms of "oversight." Notable in the list is just how much of the aide is defensive in nature - the Patriot missile system isn't going to drive the Russians out. And seeing how tomorrow is June 1st, there will obviously be no spring offensive by Ukraine, and likely nothing until late summer (if it happens at all). Which makes one wonder what we're getting for that $40 billion. Lastly, the Ukrainians sent a bunch of drones to attack a wealthy neighborhood in Moscow yesterday. Which I'm guessing doesn't have old Vlad shaking in his boots. www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/05/what-debt-ceiling-crisis-biden-regime-send-another/www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-air-defences-battle-fresh-wave-russian-attacks-2023-05-30/
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Post by jdv on Jun 6, 2023 18:55:15 GMT -5
3 things of note so far this week, including the bizarre claim by the Washington Post that the CIA (but I repeat myself) knows that it was not really the Russians who blew up their own multi-million dollar pipeline (and certainly not the US), but rather an elite navy seal team from the Ukraine. More on that comedy bit in second.
Today a huge dam was blown up (apparently the size of the Hoover dam), threatening ethic Russians in Ukraine in territory controlled by the Russians. Naturally the press has blamed Russia for blowing it up.
This despite zero motive by the Russians to blow up their own Soviet-era dam, no actual proof of Russian involvement, and the tiny little fact that last year Ukrainians & Americas ran a combined war game where they simulated blowing up the very same dam to slow down the Russians (which was deemed effective).
Ergo, given all the facts, it was obviously the Russians! When Sec. of Defense John Kirby was asked by a reporter today in a random act of journalism if it seemed believable that the Russians would blow up their own dam for zero tactical gain, Kerby answered, "We've come to no conclusions on this."
Strong work John, strong.
Meanwhile, Ukraine apparently tried starting their summer offensive, only to immediately halt it. So no D Day synergy for the press to become aroused by, and no indication that the offensive is going to happen anytime soon despite perfect weather for war.
Not sure who the stalemate benefits, but that's what it's starting to look like.
And now for perhaps the silliest lie of the war so far, the claim by the WaPo that the Nordsteam pipeline was blown up by super-secret Ukrainian seals. The team was supposedly transported thousands of nautical miles undetected on a yacht. Through the Straights of Gilbralter and the English channel.
The WaPo also claims that the CIA knew that it was the Ukraine all along... even though the President was at that very moment in time blaming the Russians (a claim that 1 year later has produced zero evidence of Russian involvement). After you're done laughing at the absurdity of the Ukraine possessing a "navy" when Russia and China essentially can not float one, let this map explain to you how silly the idea really is... so yeah:
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Post by Warpig on Jun 6, 2023 21:03:11 GMT -5
You know, if I didn't know any better, I'd swear the Washington Post occasionally stretches the truth.
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Post by jdv on Jun 6, 2023 21:49:48 GMT -5
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Post by jdv on Jun 9, 2023 14:05:26 GMT -5
Conflicting reports of Ukraine starting their offensive. Western papers are reporting that it has, and Putin himself indicated as much yesterday, but it looks to more of a recon mission than outright onslaught: "Monday seemed to herald a change, with small detachments of lightly armoured Ukrainian units moving forward across the open fields towards Russian fortifications in southern Ukraine, south-east of Zaporizhzhia. "Now the so-called 'fighting reconnaissance stage' is taking place along the entire length of the front," Serhii Kuzan, co-founder and chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre, told the BBC." ----------------------------- Either way, it does look like Russia claimed it's first German tank in battle since WWII: "According to Zero Hedge, several military experts have now verified that Russian troops have annihilated their first Ukrainian Leopard 2A4 tank, made from Germany, on Wednesday in the southern region of the country. Visual evidence, including videos and photos that have surfaced recently, seem to exhibit the wreckage of US Bradley APCs combat vehicles supplied by the United States." ------------------------- Not a great sign. CNN doesn't mention a peep about the offensive on their front page today, which means it's also a pretty good bet that Ivan's a long way from being knocked out of his trenches. President Biden again promised to continue US support for "as long as it takes," but with the exact end goals a bit sketchy and lack of any real offensive yet, look for a lot more to be added to the already $39 billion (that's "billion" with a "b") spent by the US alone to keep Ukraine in the war. www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraines-counter-offensive-against-russia-under-way/ar-AA1clzQB
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