Of mice & missiles - analyzing the war in Ukraine Apr 19, 2022 12:37:19 GMT -5
Post by jdv on Apr 19, 2022 12:37:19 GMT -5
There's an interesting article by Jed Babbin over at American Spectator today analyzing the war in Ukraine, specifically what can be learned from it.
He points out the obvious (which he acknowledges) that the Russians vastly over-estimated their own martial abilities while under-estimating the Ukraine's.
He doesn't mention that the Russians for the most part have never been very good on the offensive. Indeed, it can be argued that the only time they were was in 1944-45 when the righteous outrage of their army was able to beat back and ultimately crush Nazi Germany's army. When the battle of Berlin was over, most of that outrage and vigor and battle disappeared. Their subsequent failure to take over western Europe and their total failure in Afghanistan seems to prove the point.
But Babbin does rightly point out that the Russian failure in the 'Stan was in no small part due to the American Stinger missiles proved to the home team; missiles which proved remarkably effective against Russian tanks.
Flash forward to today, and it looks like a similar US missile system used to hit the Russian Flagship MOSKVA while it moved - unescorted - into port. He notes that while US ships always travel in packs and have advanced anti-missile capacities, the Chinese have thousands of such missiles - far more that any carrier group could defeat.
Babbin assets - correctly - that while the loss of the MOSKVA is a loss of face, it won't effect the outcome of the war. It has yet to be seen if his prediction of the end of large aircraft carriers as an effective projection of force will come to pass, but smart money says yes.
Since the '80's we have lived in the age of the guided missile, and until truly effective defenses can be devised, large naval vessels and big heavy tanks will remain vulnerable... perhaps untenably so.